Research at a Glance — March 26, 2009

Okay, I know I’ve been beating the same dead horse for years now, but with the upcoming release Nintendo’s DSi online shop, I want to pint out once again that this could be an ideal e-book device. Millions in use, a great price point, good ecommerce, all kinds of rich functionality, and upgraded browser support. And yes, you can play games.

Of course, that pesky iPhone has to be reckoned with when it comes to portable reading devices. Personally, I’m a big Stanza fan and can’t wait to see what they do with the next generation iPhone software. Meanwhile, I suppose I’ll have to be enthused about BlackBoard’s new iPhone application.

Still on the theme of portable devices, I liked this post by Liz Kolb on how students can use text messaging to search the Internet. This is a great response to those who point out that a good percentage of students still lack access to computers. Not so for cell phones, however.

Finally, a couple of quick article references in the world of online and streaming TV shows. First, this article discusses Hulu’s eye towards global expansion. Next, ReadWriteWeb has this post on the popularity of social TV with Gen Y.

Research at a Glance — March 25, 2009

One of my colleagues came back from some recent conferences talking about “students as producers.” I’m glad to see that the word is starting to get out to folks and that the trend may be getting some traction in the commercial publishing industry.

Of course what makes it possible to distribute the means of production all along the user spectrum is user-friendly technologies. Like YouTube, for example. Just take a look at this site by Kutiman that creates new songs mixes by mashing up unrelated YouTube video clips.

And speaking of consumer-generated content, you might be interested to know that Flickr has surpassed 100 million Creative Commons licensed photos. According to the Creative Commons article, “These photos have been used in hundreds of thousands of Wikipedia articles, blog posts, and even mainstream press pieces; all examples of new works that might not otherwise been created without our standardized public licenses. Flickr’s integration of CC licenses was one of the first and best; not only do they allow users to specify licenses per-photo, but they offer an incredible CC discovery page which breaks down searches for CC licensed materials by license. This means that you can look for all the photos of New York City licensed under Attribution and sorted by interestingness, to give an example.”

Of course, end-user participation comes in all forms these days. One of the biggest trends is in Web documents that allow users to write and share content online (without local word processing software). One of the nicer products that allows this kind of online document creation is TextFlow, and Adobe Air application. And now we learn that TextFlow is getting even better. According to this article, the product adding “online editing and back-end file storage offerings to augment its unique and easy to use Adobe AIR application. Prior to this announcement, TextFlow was limited to only being able to work with local files.”

Finally, for those who have been waiting for a solid color-display version of an e-book reader, check out Fujitsu’s new FLEPia reader. Technology Review also has a nice article on this technology and what it could portend.

Economic crisis calls for changes in the textbook industry

The current economic crisis is proving to be a game-changer in many industries. Car makers are re-evaluating their new car models and their expectations for sales. Financial institutions, beyond hoping for mere survival, are being forced to change their assumptions about profitability and regulation. Around the world people are evaluating the old way of doing things in business and trying to find the right paths for thriving in a world with new and different rules.

Textbook publishing, particularly in Higher Education, is certainly not immune from the changes heralded by changes in the global economy. By way of brief example, consider what my wife and I heard his past week.

A friend of ours — an associate professor at a large public university — has been assigned to a faculty committee charged with setting per-course spending limits for textbooks. The committee’s mandate, it seems, originates primarily from increased student pressure over the cost of course materials. This pressure isn’t new, mind you, but it has heightened severely due to the financial difficulties faced by so many families.

One of the things that shocked our friend most — she teaches upper-division courses with relatively low textbook costs — was the actual prices students pay for new course materials in many of their classes. She was shocked that students can pay as much as $200-$400 for new course materials for some required classes.

The first thing that I want to point out is that our friend’s reaction is actually validation of what textbook publishers have been claiming for years — university faculty are quite complicit in the price of new course materials.

While students actually buy the materials, it is the faculty who select the materials to be purchased. And, the reality is that price has not been much of a determining factor for selection by many faculty members in the past. My experience has been that most faculty members have been largely unaware of the actual price being charged for course materials.

I am not suggesting, however, that faculty are ultimately responsible for the price of course materials. Rather, I am merely pointing out that instructors have been participants — along with textbook publishers, bookstores, and institutions — in the escalation of the costs.

The good news is that the academy in general seems to be waking up and institutions along with their faculty members are taking increasing responsibility for providing solutions to a problem that has gone largely unchecked.

I bring all of this up because our friend’s experience is not unique. A number of universities in the Unites States are hoping ti set price limits on course materials. This, of course, is in addition to legislation in many states that attempts to enforce processes that will help keep the cost of course materials down.

The result, of course, is increased “squeeze” on the textbook industry. The harsh fact is that fewer new print textbooks will be sold in the future and that prices of books will level off and, in many cases, decrease. In this scenario of lower unit sales and prices, increased revenues cannot be maintained simply by raising prices. In addition, channels of production and distribution are changing rapidly and textbook companies are under pressure to remain competitive in a changed market landscape. Finally, textbook publishers may not want to believe it but the customers themselves are changing. Actually they have already changed.

The economy will not change overnight but textbook publishers will need to respond decisively to the new market challenges in order to remain viable. Here are some systemic changes I believe are necessary if they want to survive the next decade and maintain some level of fiscal health.

  • Move to a turnkey digital environment that places priority of digital rather than analog — Like newspaper and other publishing entities, textbook publishers have struggled with the simultaneous existence of highly-individual print products and templatized digital products and production. To date, companies have championed the print process with which they are familiar (analog), and simply added digital extensions to that process. This has provided them with digital products but not true digital processes. As a result, internal costs are too high and cannot be lowered without significant changes.
  • Adopt common, open, and customizable product templates — Ask any textbook publisher and he or she will tell you that the value of his/her company is in its brand and content. And yet, extraordinary costs are driven by individual product (i.e. book) differentiation through unique layouts and cover designs. Like the newspaper conglomerates, textbook publishers must find greater efficiencies through less product individualization and smart templatization.
  • Adopt open models of distribution — Another problem facing the textbook industry is that each company is trying to own or control their content as well as the means of production and distribution. This philosophy leads to a continuous churn and re-inventing of the wheel. In order to be successful, textbook companies need to focus more on partnership and existing models of distribution. Trying to control the channels has not worked for any company in the overall media industry and will not be a long-term solution for textbook publishers that thrive.
  • Become dynamic instead of static in terms of product vision — Current textbook publisher models are built around the creation of content for print products. These models are generally two to three-year cycles and view content as static and fairly immutable. Moving forward, textbook companies will need to re-invent their processes and concepts of product with a focus on learning materials as dynamic constructs that can be revised and updated as needed and customized instantaneously based on consumer demand and community focus.
  • Build real communities with customers — The current approach by textbook publishers is to drive textbook sales by focusing on committee adoptions at larger schools by selling and marketing aggressively and by signing up authors form those schools. In a nutshell, it’s about influencing individuals and it is an expensive process. Moving forward, textbook publishers would be well advised to start building real community partnerships with educational institutions across the board. To be clear, I’m not talking about lip service to partnership for the sake of closing a large adoption — I’m suggesting that textbook publishers form new kinds of partnerships with their users and communities that provide needed services and information, much like successful Web companies (including some newspaper and magazines) are starting to do.

The biggest challenge to effecting changes like the ones listed above is that tit would require textbook publishers to overhaul their accounting systems, sales organizations, and general company structures.  Carol Bartz at Yahoo can probably tell us a thing or two about how difficult real company change can be. It certainly ain’t easy.

In the end, however, textbook publishers aren’t any different than other companies whose survival is challenged by the economic shift. The old way was destined to be replaced eventually. It just hapened sooner than folks thought it would. Now is definitely the time for change if companies want to be viable within ten ten years.

E-readers are only part of the decision-making process for publishers

The WSJ ran an article Friday, detailing plans of a Hearst project to develop an electronic reader for newspapers and magazines. This news points to the evolving tension between form factor and content, and between free and premium e-content in the newspaper industry. More important, the Hearst project provides and outline for decision-making processes that are facing other publishers.

The Hearst announcement indicates an important trend as they represent one of the major owners and influencers of important newspapers and magazines. Their e-reader will be a handheld device that is designed specifically for their newspaper and magazine e-content. In contrast to Amazon’s Kindle or Sony’s Reader Digital Book, Hearst’s e-reader will have a larger form factor designed specifically for newspaper and magazine formats.

For Hearst, of course, the e-reader represents more than a fanciful foray into the digital product marketplace. Rather, it is s bold — if too late — attempt at reversing the fortunes of an industry whose processes and vision did not evolve with the times.

Like other newspaper owners who see their revenues dwindling, Hearst is hoping to find success with premium online content. The company wants to find the magic market coordinates where users will pay for some of its online content while continuing to offer the rest for free via the ad-supported model. The premium content model has been elusive for newspaper publishers thus far and Hearst must be hoping that the e-reader will give it an advantage.

The general problem in the newspaper industry is that subscription revenues have dropped precipitously while ad revenue has not increased enough to offset that loss. Making matters worse is that fact that the publishers have been forced to support both print and online news with 24/7 update expectations from their users.

Steven Swartz, the president of Hearst newspapers, puts it this way. “Our cost base is significantly out of line with the revenue available in our business today,” He goes on to add, “It is equally inescapable that during good times, our industry developed business practices that were, at best, inefficient.”

Of course, there is more at play here than a simple case of getting costs under control and finding a technological magic bullet. The newspaper industry is also beleaguered by some deep philosophical issues. Chief among these is its conundrum that the marketplace is demanding more community presence and a greater voice in the news process while the industry itself is founded on value through expertise. This is summed up quite succinctly in a headline from last Friday — “Facebook gets it. Bummer newspapers didn’t.”

I do believe, however, that the decision-making process Hearst seems to be going through is the right one — even if too late — and that other publishing entities can learn from it. The road from analog to digital in the content business has a common set of forking paths at which each company or organization must make decisions.

  • Scarcity vs. abundance — When I was a kid I only had easy access to my local paper. Today, I have easy access to papers and other types of news sources all over the world. There is an abundance of information which means consumers can afford to be more demanding and more discerning with regards to what they are willing to pay for. In a world of information abundance, how do publishers manage the concept of value? Premium vs. public content — This is a case of the chicken and the egg for most publishers. If a company loses its reader base then its content has no value, regardless of how “premium” it may seen to be. On the other hand, if a company has no unique content or premium value, there is no differentiation from competitors. How much free content must companies provide in order to keep their readerships? What do they have by way of premium content that is valuable enough to get people to pay for it?
  • Experts vs. community — Historically, publishing has been about the few providing an information or entertainment service to the many. Experts ply their craft for a wage so that the rest of us can have high-quality content. What happens, however, when the marketplace announces that it puts less value on expertise and increased value on community participation? What happens when the readership demands a place of the decision-making table?
  • Singular, proprietary formats vs. common (open) templates — Hearst owns sixteen major newspapers and came to the realization that, while the differences between the newspapers weren’t that great, they had not been able to harness any efficiencies around that sameness. Is it possible to have a common design that lends itself to production efficiencies without lowering the perceived identities or value of the products?
  • Closed delivery models vs. open distribution — At this juncture, Hearst is betting on the idea that a single form factor will help them find production efficiencies and drive the value of their premium content. This is contrasted with another prevailing philosophy that says the value of content is its availability anytime, anywhere, and in any form factor. A digital newspaper reader is cool but I don’t have to have one. I need my smartphone and notebook/netbook, however, and would rather not carry another device.

Certainly, here are other decisions that need to be made, and a number of lurking issues around cost to the marketplace and the fair treatment of content authors. Overall, however, the Hearst example provides a nice list of questions that must be answered for publisher to have any hope of managing successful transitions into the digital present/future.

Research at a Glance — November 5, 2008

We elected a new President in the U.S. last night and the change feels good. My personal belief is that this change will foster other changes in many directions. Stay tuned. I should also mention that the elections kept me up rather late last night and, as a result this research update is rather scant. I promise to do better tomorrow.

There’s been a good bit of news about VoxOx of late. This is a Skype competitor that wants to extend Internet-based telephone and communication services with e-mail and social networking. Sometimes it’s good not to be first on the scene as you have time to determine what the market wants most. It will be months before we can determine whether or not VoxOx has benefitted sufficiently from such positioning.

I also noticed yesterday that Firefox reached 20% market share for the first time. And, going in the exact opposite direction are CD sales. CD’s will remain viable for some time but the size of their market share in the music industry will continue to diminish dramatically as online digital sales continue to grow.

I also like this post from Vicki Davis in which she explores the limits of Google Docs.

Finally, just when the e-book reader world looked clear, Hanvon has introduced its N510 e-book reader. We’ll see how it stacks up in a couple of weeks although the attractive components are its use of e-ink technology and its size — 5 inches.

Research at a Glance — November 4, 2008

Mobile technology continues to be all the rage and why not mix it in today with the other hot topic du jour, gaming. This article from Business weeks outlines the argument for Apple as a primary contender in the mobile gaming arena. Of course, not everyone is betting the entire bank on the iPhone. There are plenty of Android supporters out there as wel. Here’s a nice article from one of them over at CNET — Why Android might beat the iPhone. Expecting something else on gaming? Okay, here it is. Check out this article.presentation on the anatomy of a course designed like a video game.

And in case you thought Web 2.0 or social networking was dead because of the financial sag, guess again. We now have news that more than 3 billion photos have been posted at Flickr. And if that number doesn’t impress you, how about the fact that Facebook membership has now surged to 120 million? Speaking of Facebook, I see that the cool Teach The People app is now live. This application was ranked as a TechCrunch favorite and it’s not hard to see why. Teach The People leverages the inherent social networking strengths and membership of Facebook to create a an online learning community!

Finally today, and finishing up where we started, take a look at the great list of resources on handhelds in education from Karen Montgomery over at Thinking Machine.

Research at a Glance — November 3, 2008

I took my first look at Ziipa today and really liked what I saw. Lots of possibilities here as this product combined the idea of visual search with Web 2.0 user participation and community. Speaking of search, Microsoft is now saying that they will provide new and improved instant search answers on their Live Search.

Current instant answers show up for some queries for encyclopedia facts, traffic, and horoscopes, according to a blog post from Live Search Product Manager Theo Vachovsky. He then offered a teaser for coming attractions: “Check this blog in a month to find out about other cool new instant answers on Live Search.

I’m not sure how this is supposed to be different or better that Wikipedia (I mean, I understand how it’s different from a product perspective but what is the actual net difference or advantage?). My personal feeling is that the future of search necessarily involves greater user and community participation and definition. It’s all about user participation. Of course such participation and community is also what drives open software trends in general. And open courseware is certainly no exception. On that same theme, go to the OpenCourseWare Consortium to find courseware materials and to view the work of participating consortium schools.

On the handheld front, early indications are that Google’s Android Market is showing steady growth. The power of this platform, along with Apple’s iPhone, give consumers reason to believe that handheld computing may provide an adequate alternative to laptops in the not-too-distant future. That’s really good news for most folks evidently, as the average person is increasingly frustrated with the amount of time it takes for his/her computer to start up. It seems most of us want our laptops and desktops to be “instantly on,” the same way our phones operate.

In other news, I see that Nintendo’s new DSi launched in Japan today. We won’t see it in the U.S. for another six months but this launch at least lets us start the countdown (and yes, I still believe it can be the dominant learning hardware platform).

Finally, I like Stephen Downes’ short slide deck outlining evolving tools/architectures for e-learning.

Research at a Glance — October 31, 2008

 Let’s start off today talking about tools and the move towards greater collaboration and distribution features. First up is popular Gmail which is adding a text messaging feature. Users will be able to type in a phone number and SMS to that number via Gmail. Pretty slick and a handy add-on for support of the cell-phone and Android markets. Microsoft is getting into the iPhone market indirectly as DataViz is developing an MS Office application for Apple’s phone.

“The application would allow for editing of Microsoft Word, Excel, and PowerPoint files on your iPhone, or, presumably, your iPod Touch. According to a company representative, the application will likely be available in early 2009.”

I also notice that Slideshare now has a Linkedin applet. The Linkedin Web site boasts:

“With SlideShare on LinkedIn you can check out the presentations of your colleagues, find trusted experts, and share your own presentations with people in your network. It’s a great way to share your portfolio, resume, or presentations, market your ideas to other people, and learn from other people.”

Within the same theme region, Miguel Guhlin has this nice post on Web 2.0 spreadsheets.In it, he compares EditGrid, ZohoSheet, MS Excel, and Google Spreadsheets. Here’s a link to Miguel’s cpmparison grid.

Finally, I’d like to give a quick mention to CamStudio. For those PC users out there who want to do some screen recording and don’t want to purchase Camtasia Studio or the useful-but-limited Jing, CamStudio is a free tool that provides lots of functionality and power. You can download the tool or read more about it here.

Research at a Glance — October 30, 2008

 You hear a lot these days about new literacies, new ways of processign information, and the need to new methodologies in education. The two videos below are not necessarily endorsements of these calls for action, but rather nice tools for helping us think differently about the reality in which we find ourselves.

First up is this video from TED that features the poet Rives tells a three-minute love story of mixed emoticons.

Next up is this video on Generation WE. These “millennials” form the largest generation in American history. Born between 1978 and 2000, WE are 95 million strong, compared to the 78 million Baby Boomers.


Generation WE: The Movement Begins… from Generation We on Vimeo.

Trying to understand the intersection of younger millennials and technology is important, and Will Richardson has this insightful article that explores this and other important topics.

Also, early buzz is that BlackBerry’s new Storm handset is poised to the an iPhone Killer. It features an innovative touchscreen along with BlackBerry’s successful keyboard. For the Enterprise users, this should definitely be enough to keep Apple our of the boardroom. The real issue will be around media handling and the lifestyle integration features beyond mail (where the iPhone is at its best). And while we’re on the theme of phones, check out Liz Kolb’s survey on p[eople’s favorite cell-to-Web or Web-to-cell tools.

In the miscellaneous category, I see that World of Warcraft has reached 11 million subscribers, and I also want to point out a new service called Docstoc. This is a document upload and sharing site like Sribd, with a heavier emphasis on social networking around the documents. It is a compelling concept and product delivery.

Research at a Glance — October 29, 2008

 We should definitely start out today by mentioning several sign posts referencing the evolution of print media publishing. First, Time has announced that it is laying off employees due to its declining print advertising revenues. In a move motivated by the same cost-benefit model but with a slightly different implementation, The Christian Science Monitor is ending its daily print edition and opting instead for a once-a-week publication and a continuously updated online version available via subscription. All of this and more is discussed in an insightful piece over at The New York Times — Mourning Media’s Decline

That theme dovetails with Google’s visions for the future. they have settled an outstanding lawsuit with major publishers and authors and now are moving aggressivle to sell books that can only be read online.

And speaking of online stuff, Microsoft announced yesterday that they are making the next version of Microsoft Office available as an online product. Of course, Microsoft is a Johnny-come-lately to the online office wars. Google and Zoho already offer proven solutions in this arena with established user bases. In addition, ZImbra (now owned by Yahoo) has established a beach head in the area of online institutional e-mail and collaboration services. The company announced yesterday that it is launching new plans for access to its collaboration suite to educational institutions.

And now for a couple of educational items from yesterday that I really liked.

For an example of how visual search can be useful, take a look at this “stack” on the K12 Online Conference 2008 from Searchme.

Searchme View in searchme: full | lite

Also, check out this video, “What Makes a Poem a Poem in 60 Seconds.”

Finally, I want to point out a couple of valuable studies just out. First, NMC, in partnership with The Economist Intelligence Unit has published this useful study on trends in Higher Education — The future of higher education: How technology will shape learning. Additionally, a href=”http://www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?p=490″>trendsspotting has a great summary of a recent Pew study on television/Internet usage and families. Here are some of the details:

Perceptions:

  • 79% of online adults admit that the internet has improved their connections with friends to some degree (33% report a major improvement)
  • 72% online users report that the internet has improved their connections to family members (23% report a major improvement).

Behavior:

  • Many internet-using adults spend appreciable time at the computer with household members. Among home internet users who live with a spouse and child/children:
  • 13% go online with another person on a daily basis
  • 9% do so almost every day
  • 30% do so a few times a week.
  • 34% do so less often.